His scope involves the lockdown that began in March of last year, which ended in August, as well as the lockdown that is currently restricting Greater Sydney, Wollongong, Shellharbour and other rural regions.

The analysis takes into consideration the stay-at-home order, the restrictions on non-essential work and the new limitations placed upon construction – the only sector that escaped constraint last year.

“Shortly before the state government enforced restrictions in Wollongong and Shellharbour on June 21 in response to the latest wave of COVID infections, the Illawarra region’s unemployment rate was 6 per cent,” he said.

“Roughly translated, it means that 10,000 people were out of work.

“Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released unemployment data which showed that after just one week of lockdown, the unemployment rate in the Illawarra region had jumped to 6.7 per cent, or 11,300 people.”

In a recent speech, the professor explained his analysis further.

“In the last two weeks, I’ve been asked several times how much the unemployment rate will grow during this crisis,” he said.

“This is a difficult question to answer.

“No matter which way you look at it, the situation is not comforting at all.

“Let’s start by analysing last year’s lockdown, which might seem like a distant memory for most people, but is not for the 10,000 Illawarra residents who lost their jobs because of it.

“On March 31, 2020, New South Wales entered a strict lockdown when the government issued its first compulsory stay-at-home order.

“At the time, the unemployment rate in Illawarra was 5.8 per cent, or about 8500 people out of work.

“Three months later, the rate had risen to 8 per cent, which translates to approximately 13,500 people unemployed.

“If we base modelling off the events that occurred in 2020, assuming we have the same experience, then by September unemployment in the Illawarra region will reach almost 10 per cent, meaning that 16,000 people will no longer have a job.

“I don’t believe that this projected figure will accurately reflect the reality in September.

“I’m afraid that it will be worse.”

Prof. Frino bases this pessimistic projection on the absence of JobKeeper in 2021, the financial support measure introduced by the federal government to assist with the economic crisis and reduce layoffs.

“JobKeeper was designed to help businesses keep employees on payroll while maintaining employment levels,” he said.

The federal initiative also intended to preserve normal standards of operation for businesses, so that when the lockdown ended, there would be no need to lay off jobs or recruit new employees.

“By October last year, unemployment had returned to 5.5 per cent in the region and the local economy was in turmoil once again,” Prof. Frino said.

When the recent lockdown was imposed, the JobKeeper scheme was not reintroduced.

Instead, Disaster Payments, like those issued to victims of bushfires or floods, were made available to those affected by the lockdown.

“This is similar to unemployment benefits and the payment goes directly to the person who has lost some or all of their work,” Prof. Frino said.

“In terms of covering expenses and supporting dependents, it comes close to JobKeeper, but fails in one crucial aspect: the direct connection between company and employee, the main feature that allowed for rapid recovery at the end of the first lockdown.

“The sectors hit hardest by the lockdown in the 2021 lockdown are construction, retail, housing and hospitality.

“In the Illawarra, these sectors are kept afloat by almost 40,000 full-time workers: nearly a third of our workforce.”

The lifting of some restrictions on the construction sector will ease the burden, limiting the number of jobs lost, though it is too late for some.

The retail, accommodation and hospitality sectors are currently in serious difficulty.

As the number of cases continues to grow across the state, and the lockdown has no end in sight, it is safe to assume that there will be even greater repercussions in terms of unemployment.