Sensitivity analysis contained in the document estimates that a hypothetical 33 per cent increase in the number of foreigners living in Italy by 2070 would potentially drive a drop in debt of "more than 30 points" over the same period.
"Given the demographic profile of immigrants entering Italy, there is a significant impact on the resident working-age population and thus on labour supply," the DEF (Economic and Financial Document) reads.
The other variables affecting public debt are life expectancy, which is increasing in Italy and allegedly does not change the forecast "by much"; and the fertility rate, which is falling and so potentially pushing up borrowing.
Meanwhile, the GDP forecasts set out in the DEF blueprint are "extremely cautious" and it is entirely realistic to aim for higher growth, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti wrote in his foreword to the document made public on Thursday.
The growth forecasts are "aimed at drawing up budget projections inspired by caution and reliability," the document reads.
However, the minister says, it is "entirely realistic to aim for an increase in the GDP growth rate and the rate of employment in the coming years that goes well beyond the forecasts" set out in the DEF.
This, according to Giorgetti, can be achieved through "innovation and investment under the banner of ecological and digital transition and the development of infrastructure for the transmission of clean energy and sustainable mobility".
The 2023 DEF sets 2023 GDP growth at +1 per cent, 2024 GDP growth at +1.5 per cent and 2025 GDP growth at +1.3 per cent.
In the trend scenario, GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2023, 1.4 per cent in 2024 and 1.3 per cent in 2025.
ANSA
